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San Francisco 49ersBrock Purdy Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brock Purdy has gone over 19.5 RUSH YDS in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 20.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrock Purdy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Purdy was in complete command of the offense throughout Sunday's lopsided win, throwing only two incompletions while finishing as the team's leading rusher for the cherry on top. The 49ers have been one of the league's best teams in the early going, outscoring the Rams and Dolphins by a combined margin of 62-20 heading into a Week 3 home game against the Cardinals. Purdy has contributed six total touchdowns during this hot start, including third-quarter touchdown passes of 12 yards to George Kittle and six yards to Kyle Juszczyk against the Dolphins following Purdy's two-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
Verdict
vs 19.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)72supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
25.2 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 28.2 · L10 24.4 · med 26.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 11.8 · ceil 29.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62% | 8/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 19.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%7/12Low
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 14.5 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brock Purdy has gone over 19.5 RUSH YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 54% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (14.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 13.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 13.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-107
-3.3% EV
Model vs market (over)+10.5%
Our model puts the over at 60.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More Brock Purdy research
Brock Purdy — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Purdy Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Purdy Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Purdy Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.