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San Francisco 49ersBrock Purdy Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brock Purdy has gone over 3.5 PASS TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Iowa State
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Linepays more
Passing TDs · season avg 2.1 PASS TD · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutBrock Purdy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Purdy was in complete command of the offense throughout Sunday's lopsided win, throwing only two incompletions while finishing as the team's leading rusher for the cherry on top. The 49ers have been one of the league's best teams in the early going, outscoring the Rams and Dolphins by a combined margin of 62-20 heading into a Week 3 home game against the Cardinals. Purdy has contributed six total touchdowns during this hot start, including third-quarter touchdown passes of 12 yards to George Kittle and six yards to Kyle Juszczyk against the Dolphins following Purdy's two-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
Verdict
vs 3.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 11% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line18argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.0 PASS TD(×0.99 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2013 games
8%over
1 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 1%–33%Season13 games
8%over
1 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 1%–33%Situational splits
Over 3.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/6Medium
Away14%1/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days8%1/12Medium
Next matchup — vs ARI
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
ARI allows 2.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brock Purdy has gone over 3.5 PASS TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 8% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 59.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 40.4%
Best Over
BetRivers-167
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+153
+2.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-48.7%
Our model puts the over at 10.9% vs the market's no-vig 59.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 8%.
More Brock Purdy research
Brock Purdy — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Purdy Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Purdy Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Purdy Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.