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Tennessee TitansCalvin Ridley
#0 · WR · 6' 1" · 190 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 60.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCalvin Ridley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ridley missed just one day of practice and is now expected to be a full participant. He'll likely get plenty of first-team snaps, but Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson are the favorites to see the most targets, while Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor loom as threats to push Ridley for playing time. Ridley was a limited participant in spring practices after breaking his fibula in Week 11 last year.
Verdict
vs 42.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
66.0 REC YDS
L5 60.5 · L10 60.5 · med 42.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.0 · ceil 86.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 42.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 | ||
| 50% | 2/4 |
Situational splits
Over 42.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%2/3Low
Last matchup — @ ARI
Oct 5, 2025
12thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
ARI allows 44.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 52 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Calvin Ridley has gone over 42.5 REC YDS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 12th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 42.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.