Tennessee Titans

Calvin Ridley Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Calvin Ridley has gone over 8.5 FS in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 9.3 FS · our line

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OutCalvin Ridley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Ridley missed just one day of practice and is now expected to be a full participant. He'll likely get plenty of first-team snaps, but Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson are the favorites to see the most targets, while Chimere Dike and Elic Ayomanor loom as threats to push Ridley for playing time. Ridley was a limited participant in spring practices after breaking his fibula in Week 11 last year.

Verdict

vs 8.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency4argues against it

Projection

9.9 FS

L5 9.3 · L10 9.3 · med 7.7

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.5 · ceil 12.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	3/4
	75%	3/4
	50%	2/4
8.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4
	25%	1/4

Last 4 games — FS per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Last matchup — @ ARI

Oct 5, 2025

13thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 9.7 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 52 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 4 games, Calvin Ridley has gone over 8.5 FS 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ARI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 13th-most FS of 32 teams (9.7 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.