Tennessee Titans

Calvin Ridley Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Calvin Ridley has gone over 1.5 REC in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 1.2 REC · our line

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OutCalvin Ridley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Ridley has been a total non-factor all season and remains likely to be dealt ahead of next week's trade deadline, if there's a team willing to take on the remainder of his $5.49 million salary for this season. He doesn't appear to have much left in the tank at 31 years old.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line67supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 REC

L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
1.5Current	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%2/2Low

Away0%0/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days25%1/4Low

Last matchup — @ CIN

Nov 1, 2026

25thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

CIN allows 3.0 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 25 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Calvin Ridley has gone over 1.5 REC 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. CIN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 25th-most REC of 32 teams (3.0 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 1.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 58.3%
No-vig fair (under): 41.7%

Best Over

Sleeper-192

-11.3% EV

Best Under

Sleeper+113

-11.3% EV

Model vs market (over)-25.5%

Our model puts the over at 32.9% vs the market's no-vig 58.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.