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Denver BroncosCourtland Sutton
#14 · WR · 6' 4" · 216 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 69.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Waddle has averaged 77.5 catches for 1,049 yards and 7.5 touchdowns over the past two seasons as the Broncos' No. 1 wideout, and the team gave its WR room a dramatic new look in mid-March by dealing for Waddle. While the trade on one hand means Sutton is more of a 1A in the pecking order alongside Waddle, it may also mean the former will have more open looks with opposing defenses needing to focus heavy attention on Waddle. It remains to be seen how exactly the Broncos' offense will adjust to Waddle's presence, but with QB Bo Nix (ankle) expected to be good to go for the start of training camp and coming off a 2025 regular season during which he threw the most passes in the NFL, there should be adequate targets for both Sutton and Waddle to put up lofty receiving numbers.
Verdict
vs 62.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
62.6 REC YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 61.8 · L10 58.9 · med 60.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 50.4 · ceil 89.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 60% | 9/15 | ||
| 62.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 62.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away33%2/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
J.K. Dobbins out-16.1 REC YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
61.5 REC YDS
25% over 62.5
With (7g)
77.6 REC YDS
71% over 62.5
Last matchup — vs NE
Jan 25, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 36.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 62.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (36.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 27.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.