Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Courtland Sutton has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our line

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OutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The five grabs and nine targets led the Broncos on the day, but Pat Bryant just edged him out for the receiving yards lead. The highlight of Sutton's solid performance was a three-yard TD from Bo Nix in the first quarter, as none of his receptions went for longer than 12 yards. Denver gets a well-timed bye in Week 10, but if Jaylen Waddle (concussion) isn't cleared to play on the other side of it, Sutton could see bigger volume in Week 11 against the Raiders. On the season, the long-time Bronco sports a 25-266-2 line on 46 targets through nine games.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency53neutral

Projection

4.0 TGT(×0.91 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 4.6 · med 4.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.4 · ceil 5.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	100%	8/8
	75%	6/8
4.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

Last matchup — vs KC

Nov 1, 2026

24thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 5.1 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 23 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 24th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.