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Denver BroncosCourtland Sutton Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Courtland Sutton has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sutton saw Jaylen Waddle spearhead the Broncos' air attack with an eight-catch, 138-yard day on 10 targets, while the former posted his second straight underwhelming line to open the season. Sutton has seen a modest nine targets over his first two games, and it remains to be seen if Waddle is in the early stages of taking over the No. 1 role in the team's passing attack. Sutton will look to make more of an impact in a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency39argues against it
Projection
4.1 REC(×1.01 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 4.2 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2016 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Season16 games
56%over
9 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 15/16 | ||
| 88% | 14/16 | ||
| 81% | 13/16 | ||
| 4.5Current | 56% | 9/16 | |
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 13% | 2/16 | ||
| 6% | 1/16 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
5thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 4.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 56% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC of 32 teams (4.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 47.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 52.4%
Best Over
Caesars+107
-1.5% EV
Best Under
BetMGM+105
+7.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.6%
Our model puts the over at 48.2% vs the market's no-vig 47.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
- BetMGMline 3.5over rate 81%edge 0
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Courtland Sutton research
Courtland Sutton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Sutton Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Sutton Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Sutton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.