Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Courtland Sutton has gone over 5.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 5.0 REC · our line

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OutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Waddle has averaged 77.5 catches for 1,049 yards and 7.5 touchdowns over the past two seasons as the Broncos' No. 1 wideout, and the team gave its WR room a dramatic new look in mid-March by dealing for Waddle. While the trade on one hand means Sutton is more of a 1A in the pecking order alongside Waddle, it may also mean the former will have more open looks with opposing defenses needing to focus heavy attention on Waddle. It remains to be seen how exactly the Broncos' offense will adjust to Waddle's presence, but with QB Bo Nix (ankle) expected to be good to go for the start of training camp and coming off a 2025 regular season during which he threw the most passes in the NFL, there should be adequate targets for both Sutton and Waddle to put up lofty receiving numbers.

Verdict

vs 5.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency44neutral

Projection

5.0 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 4.4 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2015 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Season15 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	93%	14/15
	87%	13/15
	60%	9/15
5.5Current	47%	7/15
	13%	2/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%6/14Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out-0.3 REC when he sits

Without (8g)

4.9 REC

38% over 5.5

With (7g)

5.1 REC

57% over 5.5

Last matchup — vs NE

Jan 25, 2026

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 5.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.