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Denver BroncosCourtland Sutton Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Courtland Sutton has gone over 2.5 REC in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 2.5 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCourtland Sutton isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sutton went to the medical tent after taking a hard hit, but the wideout was able to return to action not long after he did so. In the process he'll bolster a Denver Week 9 WR corps that also includes Jaylen Waddle, Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Lil'Jordan Humphrey.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency42neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
2.5 REC(×0.94 context)
L5 2.4 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 8/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ CAR
Nov 8, 2026
15thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
CAR allows 3.5 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 24 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Courtland Sutton has gone over 2.5 REC 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (3.5 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 3.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 43.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 56.7%
Best Over
Caesars+122
-3.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-137
-2.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.9%
Our model puts the over at 46.2% vs the market's no-vig 43.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (3.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Courtland Sutton research
Courtland Sutton — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Sutton Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Sutton Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Sutton Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.