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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott
#4 · QB · 6' 2" · 230 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 280.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Schottenheimer didn't specify any particular players, but Prescott is the leader of Dallas' offense and will aim to ensure the unit is running on all cylinders by Week 1 against the Giants on Sunday, Sept. 13. Prescott likely will be joined by RB Javonte Williams, WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens and TE Jake Ferguson, among others, on the sideline during exhibition action.
Verdict
vs 266.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency67supports it
Projection
301.4 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 308.2 · L10 286.5 · med 281.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 244.0 · ceil 320.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 9/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 266.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 266.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
CeeDee Lamb out-17.5 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
267.0 PASS YDS
25% over 266.5
With (12g)
284.5 PASS YDS
58% over 266.5
Last matchup — @ WSH
Dec 25, 2025
3rdof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
WSH allows 254.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 266.5 PASS YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 3rd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (254.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 54.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.