Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dak Prescott has gone over 8.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Mississippi State
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 11.1 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Schottenheimer didn't specify any particular players, but Prescott is the leader of Dallas' offense and will aim to ensure the unit is running on all cylinders by Week 1 against the Giants on Sunday, Sept. 13. Prescott likely will be joined by RB Javonte Williams, WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens and TE Jake Ferguson, among others, on the sideline during exhibition action.

Verdict

vs 8.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

13.2 RUSH YDS(×1.04 context)

L5 10.4 · L10 12.9 · med 11.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 24.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	56%	9/16
	56%	9/16
	50%	8/16
8.5Current	50%	8/16
	44%	7/16
	44%	7/16
	44%	7/16

Last 16 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 8.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

CeeDee Lamb out-5.2 RUSH YDS when he sits

Without (4g)

7.3 RUSH YDS

25% over 8.5

With (12g)

12.4 RUSH YDS

58% over 8.5

Last matchup — @ WSH

Dec 25, 2025

13thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

WSH allows 19.3 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 8.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. WSH has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 13th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (19.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.