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Dallas CowboysDak Prescott Completions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dak Prescott has gone over 24.5 CMP in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Mississippi State
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 24.6 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDak Prescott isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Arizona's defense had been plenty exploitable this season, allowing 243.7 yards per game and 17 TDs through the air to opposing QBs heading into Week 8 action. Even with his main skill-position talents available Sunday, though, Prescott didn't crack 200 passing yards for the first time since Week 1. He salvaged his day with his first TD on the ground of the campaign, which supplemented a nine-yard TD connection with WR Ryan Flournoy. Prescott and the Cowboys offense will look to get back on track next Sunday versus an exploitable Colts defense on the road.
Verdict
vs 24.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency60supports it
Projection
26.5 CMP(×1.13 context)
L5 24.8 · L10 24.6 · med 24.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 20.2 · ceil 29.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 24.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ IND
Nov 8, 2026
31stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 17.1 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Dak Prescott has gone over 24.5 CMP 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most CMP of 32 teams (17.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Dak Prescott research
Dak Prescott — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Prescott Passing TDs→
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Prescott Rushing Yards→
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Prescott Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.