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Baltimore RavensDerrick Henry
#22 · RB · 6' 2" · 252 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 105.4 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Henry and other Ravens have expressed excitement about Doyle's scheme, with the 32-year-old running back telling reporters this offseason that "change can be good," and "everything is new, so we're all just trying to learn." Quarterback Lamar Jackson and wide receiver Zay Flowers made stronger comments during the offseason program, both praising Doyle for originality/creativity. The Ravens lost some key pieces of their running game this offseason, namely C Tyler Linderbaum and FB Patrick Ricard, but they also improved at the guard spots and still have a strong core of veteran standouts on both sides of the ball. Henry finished second in the league in rushing yards each of his first two seasons in Baltimore, and after a red-hot finish to the 2025 season, he's again going in the second round of most fantasy drafts.
Verdict
vs 103.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line35argues against it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
134.4 RUSH YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 125.6 · L10 111.8 · med 111.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 66.8 · ceil 127.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 54% | 7/13 | ||
| 103.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 103.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days42%5/12Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Lamar Jackson out+7.4 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
110.5 RUSH YDS
50% over 103.5
With (9g)
103.1 RUSH YDS
44% over 103.5
Last matchup — @ PIT
Jan 5, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
PIT allows 51.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 103.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (51.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 48.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.