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Baltimore RavensDerrick Henry Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Derrick Henry has gone over 1.5 REC in 3 of his last 9 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 1.3 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Baltimore sitting at 4-5 and having lost its top two QBs in Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) for the foreseeable future and rest of the season, respectively, there has been speculation Henry may be available via trade, but the team has informed the running back that it doesn't intend to consider such a transaction. Instead, the Ravens have dealt for quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Cardinals to help stabilize the offense, which may help Henry end his streak being held under 100 yards rushing at four contests. Overall, Henry has racked up 689 yards and eight touchdowns on 175 carries for a career-low 3.9 YPC in his nine appearances in 2026.
Verdict
vs 1.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.0 REC(×0.90 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 109 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Last 209 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Season9 games
33%over
3 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–65%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 8/9 | ||
| 1.5Current | 33% | 3/9 | |
| 11% | 1/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Last matchup — vs JAX
Nov 5, 2026
15thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs
JAX allows 2.2 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 1.5 REC 3 of 9 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. JAX has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 1.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 42.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 57.1%
Best Over
DraftKings+121
-5.1% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-150
-4.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-14.9%
Our model puts the over at 28.1% vs the market's no-vig 42.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.
More Derrick Henry research
Derrick Henry — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Henry Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Henry Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Henry Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Henry Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.