Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Derrick Henry has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.9 RUSH TD · our line

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OutDerrick Henry isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With Baltimore sitting at 4-5 and having lost its top two QBs in Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) for the foreseeable future and rest of the season, respectively, there has been speculation Henry may be available via trade, but the team has informed the running back that it doesn't intend to consider such a transaction. Instead, the Ravens have dealt for quarterback Jacoby Brissett from the Cardinals to help stabilize the offense, which may help Henry end his streak being held under 100 yards rushing at four contests. Overall, Henry has racked up 689 yards and eight touchdowns on 175 carries for a career-low 3.9 YPC in his nine appearances in 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it

Projection vs line40argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 RUSH TD(×0.90 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 109 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 209 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Season9 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	56%	5/9
	22%	2/9
	11%	1/9
	0%	0/9

Last 9 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away60%3/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%4/8Low

Last matchup — vs JAX

Nov 5, 2026

25thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

JAX allows 0.2 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 9 games, Derrick Henry has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. JAX has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.