Loading…
Arizona CardinalsGardner Minshew II
#17 · QB · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 18.5 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGardner Minshew II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Minshew will bump back to the backup role now that teammate Jacoby Brissett has come to terms with Arizona on a new contract that provides him a raise for the 2026 campaign. Expectations are that Minshew will kick off the regular season as the No. 2 option behind Brissett, though rookie third-rounder Carson Beck also will have the chance to compete for opportunities in training camp. Minshew is fully recovered from the season-ending knee injury he suffered while operating as the backup to Patrick Mahomes (ACL) in Kansas City in 2025.
Verdict
vs 18.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency68supports it
Projection
18.3 PASS YDS
L5 18.5 · L10 18.5 · med 18.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.4 · ceil 20.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Last matchup — @ TEN
Dec 21, 2025
5thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
TEN allows 245.8 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Gardner Minshew II has gone over 18.5 PASS YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (245.8 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.