Arizona Cardinals

Gardner Minshew II Passing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Gardner Minshew II has gone over 2.5 PASS TD in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington State
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

pays more

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.5 PASS TD · PrizePicks line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

PrizePicks payout options — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins

Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).

Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.

Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.

OutGardner Minshew II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have opted to appoint Minshew to the top spot on the depth chart after he came on in relief of a struggling Jacoby Brissett and led a stirring comeback in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win over the Cowboys. In what was his first appearance of the season, Minshew completed 17 of 23 pass attempts for 188 yards and three touchdowns in just under two quarters' worth of action before Chad Ryland sealed the victory with a walk-off 42-yard field goal. Though his performance in future games will ultimately dictate how long he sticks around as the Cardinals' starter, Minshew is far from a lock to hold down the job for the balance of the season. If the 3-5 Cardinals eventually fade from playoff contention, LaFleur may want to give an extended look to rookie third-round pick Carson Beck, who will serve as Minshew's top backup in Week 9 while Brissett falls to third on the depth chart, per Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site.

Verdict

vs 2.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 23% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)96supports it

Projection vs line36argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 PASS TD(×0.92 context)

L5 1.5 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.6 · ceil 2.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Open this line on PrizePicks→

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 2 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — @ SEA

Nov 8, 2026

27thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

SEA allows 1.1 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Gardner Minshew II has gone over 2.5 PASS TD 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SEA has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.