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Arizona CardinalsGardner Minshew II Completions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Gardner Minshew II has gone over 20.5 CMP in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington State
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 10.0 CMP · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Completions (CMP)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutGardner Minshew II isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals have opted to appoint Minshew to the top spot on the depth chart after he came on in relief of a struggling Jacoby Brissett and led a stirring comeback in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win over the Cowboys. In what was his first appearance of the season, Minshew completed 17 of 23 pass attempts for 188 yards and three touchdowns in just under two quarters' worth of action before Chad Ryland sealed the victory with a walk-off 42-yard field goal. Though his performance in future games will ultimately dictate how long he sticks around as the Cardinals' starter, Minshew is far from a lock to hold down the job for the balance of the season. If the 3-5 Cardinals eventually fade from playoff contention, LaFleur may want to give an extended look to rookie third-round pick Carson Beck, who will serve as Minshew's top backup in Week 9 while Brissett falls to third on the depth chart, per Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site.
Verdict
vs 20.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line93supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
9.5 CMP(×0.92 context)
L5 10.0 · L10 10.0 · med 10.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 5.8 · ceil 14.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 52 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 102 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 202 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Season2 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Situational splits
Over 20.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — @ SEA
Nov 8, 2026
21stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
SEA allows 19.6 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 2 games, Gardner Minshew II has gone over 20.5 CMP 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. SEA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 21st-most CMP of 32 teams (19.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Line shopping — Completions (CMP)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (20.5 CMP). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.
More Gardner Minshew II research
Gardner Minshew II — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Minshew II Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Minshew II Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Minshew II Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.