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Philadelphia EaglesHollywood Brown
#5 · WR · 5' 9" · 170 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 43.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHollywood Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brown signed with the Eagles early in free agency and now finds himself competing for opportunities in a reshaped receiving corps. DeVonta Smith is entrenched as the team's No. 1 wideout, while rookie first-round pick Makai Lemon and tight end Dallas Goedert also stand to benefit from the departure of A.J. Brown. Brown's experience and ability to stretch the field could help him carve out a role, though he faces competition from Dontayvion Wicks and Elijah Moore as training camp approaches. The 29-year-old put up a 49-587-5 line (on 74 targets) across 16 regular-season appearances with the Chiefs in 2025.
Verdict
vs 41.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
36.6 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 41.2 · L10 39.3 · med 41.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 23.6 · ceil 60.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 41.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 41.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home20%1/5Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jalen Hurts out+21.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
48.9 REC YDS
67% over 41.5
With (3g)
27.3 REC YDS
0% over 41.5
Saquon Barkley out+21.6 REC YDS when he sits
Without (9g)
48.9 REC YDS
67% over 41.5
With (3g)
27.3 REC YDS
0% over 41.5
Last matchup — @ LV
Jan 4, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 39.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 65 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Hollywood Brown has gone over 41.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (39.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.