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Philadelphia EaglesHollywood Brown Targets
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Hollywood Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.6 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutHollywood Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With both DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) missing the contest, Brown ranked third among Eagles wideouts with 32 offensive snaps. He didn't do much with the opportunity, as the veteran wideout notched just two receptions for the second straight week. If Smith and/or Wicks return in Week 9 against the Giants, Brown may see his role diminish.
Verdict
vs 4.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency3argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
4.1 TGT(×0.82 context)
L5 4.2 · L10 4.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 100% | 13/13 | ||
| 85% | 11/13 | ||
| 4.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 31% | 4/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 | ||
| 15% | 2/13 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs NYG
Nov 8, 2026
20thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
NYG allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Hollywood Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 54% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.
More Hollywood Brown research
Hollywood Brown — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Brown Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Brown Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Brown Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.