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Las Vegas RaidersJack Bech
#18 · WR · 6' 1" · 214 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 7 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- TCU
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 24.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutJack Bech isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Bech logged just 27 of Las Vegas' 68 offensive snaps, but his 3-23-1 line on four targets was very similar to that of fellow wideouts Tre Tucker (3-27-0 on four targets) and Jalen Nailor (3-27-0 on five targets). Bech had by far the biggest impact, however, thanks to his 15-yard TD reception in the first quarter. QB Kirk Cousins leaned the most on running back Ashton Jeanty (6-45-2 line on six targets) and tight end Michael Mayer (6-32-0 on seven targets) through the air, but his near-even distribution of targets among the team's wideouts is a good sign for Bech's potential to grow within the offense. The Raiders' WR corps doesn't have a clear-cut No. 1 option, so Bech has a chance to push for an increased role with a strong start to the campaign.
Verdict
vs 23.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
19.5 REC YDS(×0.83 context)
L5 21.6 · L10 24.4 · med 23.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 15.4 · ceil 33.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Situational splits
Over 23.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Sep 27, 2026
16thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 9 games, Jack Bech has gone over 23.5 REC YDS 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 14.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 18.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-13.2%
Our model puts the over at 36.7% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (18.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.