Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jack Bech has gone over 2.5 REC in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: TCU
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.4 REC · our line

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OutJack Bech isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bech had just 20 catches for 224 yards across 16 regular-season games as a rookie, but the 2025 second-round pick could get more opportunities in his second season as part of an underwhelming Raiders wide receiver room that also includes Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Dont'e Thornton and Malik Benson. Canelo's colleague Jared Feinberg describes Bech as a savvy route runner, and Bech's ability to get open with crisp routes should be rewarded more than it was in his rookie year if the Raiders get better quarterback play out of newcomers Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins.

Verdict

vs 2.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

2.1 REC(×0.99 context)

L5 2.4 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
	86%	6/7
2.5Current	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days17%1/6Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kirk Cousins out-0.2 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

2.3 REC

33% over 2.5

With (4g)

2.5 REC

25% over 2.5

Last matchup — vs KC

Jan 4, 2026

19thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 3.4 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jack Bech has gone over 2.5 REC 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 19th-most REC of 32 teams (3.4 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.