Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jack Bech has gone over 3.5 TGT in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: TCU
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.4 TGT · our line

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OutJack Bech isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bech had just 20 catches for 224 yards across 16 regular-season games as a rookie, but the 2025 second-round pick could get more opportunities in his second season as part of an underwhelming Raiders wide receiver room that also includes Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Dont'e Thornton and Malik Benson. Canelo's colleague Jared Feinberg describes Bech as a savvy route runner, and Bech's ability to get open with crisp routes should be rewarded more than it was in his rookie year if the Raiders get better quarterback play out of newcomers Fernando Mendoza and Kirk Cousins.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency32argues against it

Projection

3.2 TGT(×0.99 context)

L5 3.4 · L10 3.4 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.2 · ceil 4.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
	71%	5/7
3.5Current	29%	2/7
	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days17%1/6Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kirk Cousins out-0.2 TGT when he sits

Without (3g)

3.3 TGT

33% over 3.5

With (4g)

3.5 TGT

25% over 3.5

Last matchup — vs KC

Jan 4, 2026

20thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

KC allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 58 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jack Bech has gone over 3.5 TGT 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 20th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.