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Detroit LionsJared Goff
#16 · QB · 6' 4" · 217 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 280.6 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJared Goff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goff unsurprisingly saw his production limited by the Vikings' aggressive defense, and he took four sacks overall while also tossing his first interception of the season. The veteran signal-caller also saw a 24-yard first-quarter scoring strike to Amon-Ra St. Brown overturned on replay, but Goff's beautifully thrown seven-yard TD pass to Jameson Williams in the left corner of the end zone with 4:35 remaining turned out to be the difference in the game. Goff will take 1,964 passing yards and a 15:1 TD:INT into a Week 9 road matchup against the Dolphins next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 270.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
283.3 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 286.2 · L10 280.6 · med 271.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 218.6 · ceil 322.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 270.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 270.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Nov 8, 2026
16thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIA allows 230.9 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Jared Goff has gone over 270.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (230.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 72.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 260.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.2% EV
Best Under
Caesars-115
-6.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.1%
Our model puts the over at 59.1% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (258.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.