Loading…
Detroit LionsJared Goff Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jared Goff has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 2.1 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJared Goff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goff's final line undoubtedly pleased fantasy managers, but in a real-world football sense, they were largely the byproduct of a high-scoring loss in which the Lions trailed throughout. He had a mostly unremarkable first half, throwing just one of his touchdown passes in that span when he connected with Jahmyr Gibbs from 11 yards out. Goff would go on to add two and 27-yard strikes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and a one-yard scoring toss to Sam LaPorta after halftime, pushing the veteran signal-caller to a sparkling 6:0 TD:INT over the first two games of the season. Goff will next take aim at the Jets secondary in a Week 3 home matchup on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it
Projection vs line74supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
2.7 PASS TD(×1.19 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2019 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Season19 games
63%over
12 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 41%–81%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 19/19 | ||
| 1.5Current | 63% | 12/19 | |
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 11% | 2/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%12/18Medium
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
14thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jared Goff has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 63% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 55.1%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 44.9%
Best Over
FanDuel-135
-4.1% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet+115
-3.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+18.5%
Our model puts the over at 73.6% vs the market's no-vig 55.1%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Jared Goff research
Jared Goff — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Goff Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Goff Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Goff Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.