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Detroit LionsJared Goff Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Jared Goff has gone over 16.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- California
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJared Goff isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goff's final line undoubtedly pleased fantasy managers, but in a real-world football sense, they were largely the byproduct of a high-scoring loss in which the Lions trailed throughout. He had a mostly unremarkable first half, throwing just one of his touchdown passes in that span when he connected with Jahmyr Gibbs from 11 yards out. Goff would go on to add two and 27-yard strikes to Amon-Ra St. Brown and a one-yard scoring toss to Sam LaPorta after halftime, pushing the veteran signal-caller to a sparkling 6:0 TD:INT over the first two games of the season. Goff will next take aim at the Jets secondary in a Week 3 home matchup on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency37argues against it
Projection
23.4 FS(×1.19 context)
L5 18.6 · L10 18.7 · med 17.3
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.9 · ceil 25.1
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 14/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 16.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 47% | 9/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 37% | 7/19 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Next matchup — vs NYJ
Sep 27, 2026
27thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 12.8 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jared Goff has gone over 16.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. NYJ has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most FS of 32 teams (12.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Jared Goff research
Jared Goff — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Goff Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Goff Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Goff Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.