Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels Completions

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Daniels has gone over 15.5 CMP in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 16.3 CMP · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJayden Daniels isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Head coach Dan Quinn said he's pleased with Daniels' progress and has been impressed by his quarterback's processing speed. Blough is an internal promotion after two years as an assistant QBs coach under former OC Kliff Kingsbury, but it sounds like Blough has a different vision for Washington's offense, including less no-huddle and more snaps under center. Daniels reportedly has done well with the footwork while operating from under center, instead pointing to changes in terminology and offensive philosophy as the difficult aspects to master in a new offense. Blough has also mentioned, multiple times, wanting to get the ball to WR Terry McLaurin more often than the Commanders did in past years. That almost goes without saying, given the lack of other proven weapons amidst open competition for roles at WR and RB. The Commanders did at least sign TE Chig Okonkwo away from Tennessee to add some speed, and they've been connected with some of the veteran wideouts still available in free agency.

Verdict

vs 15.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 35% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line35argues against it

Consistency53neutral

Projection

13.5 CMP(×0.90 context)

L5 14.2 · L10 16.3 · med 16.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 12.6 · ceil 19.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	5/7
	71%	5/7
	71%	5/7
15.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7

Last 7 games — CMP per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%3/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

With a teammate out

How this CMP line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out+3.4 CMP when he sits

Without (4g)

17.8 CMP

75% over 15.5

With (3g)

14.3 CMP

33% over 15.5

Last matchup — @ MIN

Dec 7, 2025

31stof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

MIN allows 16.2 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 15.5 CMP 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most CMP of 32 teams (16.2 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.