Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels Passing TDs

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Daniels has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.1 PASS TD · our line

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OutJayden Daniels isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Head coach Dan Quinn said he's pleased with Daniels' progress and has been impressed by his quarterback's processing speed. Blough is an internal promotion after two years as an assistant QBs coach under former OC Kliff Kingsbury, but it sounds like Blough has a different vision for Washington's offense, including less no-huddle and more snaps under center. Daniels reportedly has done well with the footwork while operating from under center, instead pointing to changes in terminology and offensive philosophy as the difficult aspects to master in a new offense. Blough has also mentioned, multiple times, wanting to get the ball to WR Terry McLaurin more often than the Commanders did in past years. That almost goes without saying, given the lack of other proven weapons amidst open competition for roles at WR and RB. The Commanders did at least sign TE Chig Okonkwo away from Tennessee to add some speed, and they've been connected with some of the veteran wideouts still available in free agency.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line78supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.8 PASS TD(×0.90 context)

L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	71%	5/7
1.5Current	29%	2/7
	14%	1/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

With a teammate out

How this PASS TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out+0.8 PASS TD when he sits

Without (4g)

1.5 PASS TD

50% over 1.5

With (3g)

0.7 PASS TD

0% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ MIN

Dec 7, 2025

32ndof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

MIN allows 0.9 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most PASS TD of 32 teams (0.9 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.