Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jayden Daniels has gone over 39.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 39.7 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks line

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OutJayden Daniels isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Head coach Dan Quinn said he's pleased with Daniels' progress and has been impressed by his quarterback's processing speed. Blough is an internal promotion after two years as an assistant QBs coach under former OC Kliff Kingsbury, but it sounds like Blough has a different vision for Washington's offense, including less no-huddle and more snaps under center. Daniels reportedly has done well with the footwork while operating from under center, instead pointing to changes in terminology and offensive philosophy as the difficult aspects to master in a new offense. Blough has also mentioned, multiple times, wanting to get the ball to WR Terry McLaurin more often than the Commanders did in past years. That almost goes without saying, given the lack of other proven weapons amidst open competition for roles at WR and RB. The Commanders did at least sign TE Chig Okonkwo away from Tennessee to add some speed, and they've been connected with some of the veteran wideouts still available in free agency.

Verdict

vs 39.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency26argues against it

Projection

33.4 RUSH YDS(×0.90 context)

L5 38.6 · L10 39.7 · med 39.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 20.6 · ceil 51.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Last 207 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Season7 games

43%over

3 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	57%	4/7
	57%	4/7
	57%	4/7
39.5Current	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7
	43%	3/7

Last 7 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 39.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 39.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home100%3/3Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

With a teammate out

How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rachaad White out-2.3 RUSH YDS when he sits

Without (4g)

38.8 RUSH YDS

50% over 39.5

With (3g)

41.0 RUSH YDS

33% over 39.5

Last matchup — @ MIN

Dec 7, 2025

23rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

MIN allows 14.8 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 7 games, Jayden Daniels has gone over 39.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 23rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (14.8 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 17.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.