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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 237 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen came into the night undoubtedly expecting to have to work for everything he got, and Brian Flores' aggressive defensive unit helped validate that prognosis by sacking the star signal-caller on four occasions. However, Allen was able to navigate the dangers pretty effectively, spreading the ball around to eight different targets overall. He connected with Keleki Latu from 25 yards out late in the first half for his one touchdown pass, and Allen's lone turnover, a first-quarter interception at the Vikings' seven-yard line, didn't lead to any Minnesota points. Allen hasn't eclipsed the 300-yard threshold since Week 1, but he'll take 2,027 passing yards and a 12:6 TD:INT alongside 285 rushing yards into a Week 10 road divisional clash against the Jets on Sunday.
Verdict
vs 252.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency73supports it
Projection
254.0 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 242.2 · L10 256.1 · med 253.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 217.6 · ceil 282.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 252.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 252.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
31stof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 172.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Josh Allen has gone over 252.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 31st-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (172.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 41.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 230.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.5%
Our model puts the over at 52.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (230.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.