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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen Passing TDs
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Josh Allen has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.7 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen extended his record of most games with two-plus passing touchdowns and two-plus rushing touchdowns, accomplishing the feat for the 10th time in his career while leading the Bills to a wild victory in their first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. His pair of rushing touchdowns came from one and two yards out in the first and third quarters, respectively, and he hit Joshua Palmer (43 yards), Dawson Knox (one yard) and Dalton Kincaid (16 yards) for his trio of scoring strikes. Allen's solid passing numbers were made all the more impressive by the fact he lost DJ Moore to a shoulder injury late in the first half, and the star signal-caller encouragingly displayed strong chemistry with Keon Coleman (6-63-0) in response. Allen has quickly generated a 5:0 TD:INT and added four rushing touchdowns in his first two games, a noteworthy start to a quest for a second career MVP. Allen and his teammates now get some extra rest ahead of a Week 3 home showdown against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)77supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.3 PASS TD(×1.19 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 1.6 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.8 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season20 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 16/20 | ||
| 1.5Current | 60% | 12/20 | |
| 30% | 6/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 | ||
| 0% | 0/20 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
3+ days58%11/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
LAC allows 2.0 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Josh Allen has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 60% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 56.3%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 43.7%
Best Over
Caesars-145
-4.8% EV
Best Under
DraftKings+127
-0.9% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.1%
Our model puts the over at 68.5% vs the market's no-vig 56.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.
More Josh Allen research
Josh Allen — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Allen Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Allen Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Allen Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.