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Buffalo BillsJosh Allen Completions
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Josh Allen has gone over 20.5 CMP in 3 of his last 7 decided games (43%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Wyoming
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 19.3 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJosh Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Allen capped the opening drive with a one-yard touchdown plunge on which he went airborne to stretch the ball over the goal line. He struggled as a passer in the first half, including a first-quarter interception, but Allen heated up after halftime to post his highest passing yards total since a 334-yard Week 1 performance. Allen's 11-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore (knee) in the fourth quarter gave Allen sole possession of first place in Bills history with 259 passing touchdowns, including postseason play. He added a 23-yard touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid on the next drive as the Bills pulled away from a Ravens team that lost top two QBs Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe). Allen has led the Bills to a 6-1 record heading into a Week 8 road matchup against the 6-1 Vikings.
Verdict
vs 20.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency68supports it
Projection
19.3 CMP(×0.99 context)
L5 19.0 · L10 19.3 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 16.8 · ceil 22.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Last 207 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Season7 games
43%over
3 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 16%–75%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 20.5Current | 43% | 3/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
32ndof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 15.6 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Josh Allen has gone over 20.5 CMP 3 of 7 decided times (43%) — versus 43% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 32nd-most CMP of 32 teams (15.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Josh Allen research
Josh Allen — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Allen Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Allen Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Allen Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.