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Green Bay PackersMarShawn Lloyd
#32 · RB · 5' 9" · 220 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 28.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutMarShawn Lloyd isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Lloyd got the start out of the backfield for Green Bay and scored his first career regular-season touchdown with a six-yard catch in the second quarter. That's the good news. The bad news is Lloyd played a total of just 16 offensive snaps and lost a fumble deep in his own territory early in the fourth quarter. He never touched the ball again following the fumble, as Kaleb Johnson took over as the early-down back in overtime, with Chris Brooks remaining the preferred option in passing situations. Lloyd gets a dream matchup with the Falcons on Thursday night, but it's fair to wonder about his role headed into that Week 3 contest.
Verdict
vs 50.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line95supports it
Consistency50neutral
Projection
28.1 RUSH YDS
L5 28.5 · L10 28.5 · med 28.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 23.4 · ceil 33.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 102 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Last 202 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Season2 games
0%over
0 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%Situational splits
Over 50.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Away0%0/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days0%0/1Low
Next matchup — vs ATL
Sep 25, 2026
27thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
ATL allows 32.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 50.5 RUSH YDS 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 27th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (32.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 29.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.6%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-4.8% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-49.1%
Our model puts the over at 0.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (29.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.