Green Bay Packers

MarShawn Lloyd Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 0 of his last 2 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.0 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutMarShawn Lloyd isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lloyd got the start out of the backfield for Green Bay and scored his first career regular-season touchdown with a six-yard catch in the second quarter. That's the good news. The bad news is Lloyd played a total of just 16 offensive snaps and lost a fumble deep in his own territory early in the fourth quarter. He never touched the ball again following the fumble, as Kaleb Johnson took over as the early-down back in overtime, with Chris Brooks remaining the preferred option in passing situations. Lloyd gets a dream matchup with the Falcons on Thursday night, but it's fair to wonder about his role headed into that Week 3 contest.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 0% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line9argues against it

Projection

0.0 RUSH TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 102 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Last 202 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Season2 games

0%over

0 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–66%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — vs ATL

Sep 25, 2026

24thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

ATL allows 0.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 0 of 2 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 24th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.