Green Bay Packers

MarShawn Lloyd Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 5.5 REC YDS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 3.0 REC YDS · PrizePicks line

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PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.

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OutMarShawn Lloyd isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Lloyd got the start out of the backfield for Green Bay and scored his first career regular-season touchdown with a six-yard catch in the second quarter. That's the good news. The bad news is Lloyd played a total of just 16 offensive snaps and lost a fumble deep in his own territory early in the fourth quarter. He never touched the ball again following the fumble, as Kaleb Johnson took over as the early-down back in overtime, with Chris Brooks remaining the preferred option in passing situations. Lloyd gets a dream matchup with the Falcons on Thursday night, but it's fair to wonder about his role headed into that Week 3 contest.

Verdict

vs 5.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 25% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line25argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

3.1 REC YDS

L5 3.0 · L10 3.0 · med 3.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.2 · ceil 4.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 2 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs ATL

Sep 25, 2026

25thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

ATL allows 9.8 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, MarShawn Lloyd has gone over 5.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 25th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (9.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

4 books @ 5.5 REC YDS

No-vig fair (over): 49.3%
No-vig fair (under): 50.7%

Best Over

DraftKings-105

-3.7% EV

Best Under

FanDuel-114

-4.9% EV

Model vs market (over)-24.4%

Our model puts the over at 24.9% vs the market's no-vig 49.3%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (5.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.

BookLineover rateEdge

over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.