Loading…
Atlanta FalconsMichael Penix Jr.
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 220 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 213.7 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Penix Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Penix endured a career-worst all-around game in rainy conditions after coming into the afternoon with just one interception in his first five games. Only two of Penix's four picks led to Buccaneers points -- and just a pair of field goals at that -- but the Falcons defense was helpless against Tampa Bay's ground attack in the shutout. Sunday's conditions were a clear outlier, so Penix should be expected to bounce back across the pond in a Week 9 matchup against a vulnerable Bengals secondary next Sunday in Madrid.
Verdict
vs 223.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency67supports it
Projection
222.2 PASS YDS(×1.10 context)
L5 205.2 · L10 213.7 · med 224.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 213.0 · ceil 240.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 223.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 223.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Nov 8, 2026
6thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CIN allows 261.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 223.5 PASS YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CIN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (261.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 42.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.