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Atlanta FalconsMichael Penix Jr.
#9 · QB · 6' 3" · 220 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 225.9 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Michael Penix Jr.'s status before the game.
- Injury:
- Left Knee - ACL Surgery
Penix has progressed to taking part in 7-on-7 drills, though he has yet to be cleared for full-team drills. While the 2024 first-round pick recovers from November surgery to repair a torn ACL, Tua Tagovailoa (back) has had a chance to get a leg up in Atlanta's quarterback competition by working with the starters earlier in the offseason. Atlanta's QB room also includes Jack Strand and Cooper Rush.
Verdict
vs 230.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 4/100· model 44% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
218.6 PASS YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 240.4 · L10 225.9 · med 231.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 174.0 · ceil 278.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 230.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 230.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — @ IND
Nov 9, 2025
2ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
IND allows 258.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 230.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. IND has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 2nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (258.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 58.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.