Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 6.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 8 decided games (38%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 7.6 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutMichael Penix Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Atlanta has determined that Penix is ready to make his 2026 debut, after he was held out for the first two games of the season while ramping back up from surgery last November to address a torn ACL in his left knee. Penix was cleared to resume taking part in 11-on-11 drills in late August, then avoided any setbacks while he was a full participant in practices throughout Weeks 1 and 2. With Penix back in the fold, Cooper Rush -- who started the first two games of the season -- could be inactive for Week 3 if Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) is deemed ready to handle the No. 2 role.

Verdict

vs 6.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it

Projection vs line53neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

7.0 RUSH YDS(×0.99 context)

L5 6.4 · L10 7.6 · med 6.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.2 · ceil 15.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 108 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Last 208 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Season8 games

38%over

3 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
	63%	5/8
6.5Current	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8

Last 8 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%2/7Low

Next matchup — @ GB

Sep 25, 2026

26thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

GB allows 8.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 6.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 26th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (8.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 7.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.