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Atlanta FalconsMichael Penix Jr. Completions
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 19.5 CMP in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Washington
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 19.1 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutMichael Penix Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Atlanta has determined that Penix is ready to make his 2026 debut, after he was held out for the first two games of the season while ramping back up from surgery last November to address a torn ACL in his left knee. Penix was cleared to resume taking part in 11-on-11 drills in late August, then avoided any setbacks while he was a full participant in practices throughout Weeks 1 and 2. With Penix back in the fold, Cooper Rush -- who started the first two games of the season -- could be inactive for Week 3 if Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) is deemed ready to handle the No. 2 role.
Verdict
vs 19.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)89supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency60supports it
Projection
18.2 CMP(×0.99 context)
L5 19.0 · L10 19.1 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 15.0 · ceil 21.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 19.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 19.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
16thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
GB allows 19.5 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over 19.5 CMP 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 16th-most CMP of 32 teams (19.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 4.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Michael Penix Jr. research
Michael Penix Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Penix Jr. Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Penix Jr. Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Penix Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.