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Kansas City ChiefsRashee Rice
#4 · WR · 6' 1" · 204 lb · 9 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 8 of these 9 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- SMU
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 72.7 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Rice finished with the Chiefs' third-highest receiving yardage total and turned in a 31-yard grab along the way. The 2023 second-round pick's boost in production was a welcome sight for fantasy managers after he'd managed a 2-19-1 line in Week 1, and given Patrick Mahomes already looks close to full health after last December's season-ending knee injury, Rice's outlook as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver should only get brighter as the season unfolds. Rice and the rest of the Chiefs' offense is in a premium spot in Week 3, as they'll pay a visit to the winless Dolphins next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 52.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 75% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it
Projection vs line75supports it
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
81.2 REC YDS(×1.13 context)
L5 80.2 · L10 72.7 · med 80.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 40.4 · ceil 92.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Last 209 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Season9 games
56%over
5 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 52.5Current | 56% | 5/9 | |
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 |
Situational splits
Over 52.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days63%5/8Low
Next matchup — @ MIA
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
MIA allows 28.9 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 52.5 REC YDS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.9 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 48.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.2% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+24.8%
Our model puts the over at 74.7% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (48.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.