Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice Targets

Stats updated: Dec 14, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Rashee Rice has gone over 9.5 TGT in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: SMU
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 9.8 TGT · our line

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OutRashee Rice isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As Rice works his way back from an offseason knee procedure with a ramp-up period, Pete Sweeney of the Kansas City Star relays that the wideout hasn't been logging reps in team drills. That context has enabled rookie fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen to open some eyes early on in training camp, but once Rice upgrades his practice participation level, he'll step back into a prominent role in a WR corps that also features fellow returnees Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton.

Verdict

vs 9.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 61% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line61supports it

Consistency71supports it

Projection

10.6 TGT(×1.07 context)

L5 10.4 · L10 9.8 · med 9.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 8.4 · ceil 11.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	88%	7/8
	75%	6/8
9.5Current	50%	4/8
	38%	3/8
	25%	2/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away33%1/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%3/7Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenneth Walker III out-1.5 TGT when he sits

Without (5g)

9.2 TGT

40% over 9.5

With (3g)

10.7 TGT

67% over 9.5

Last matchup — vs LAC

Dec 14, 2025

22ndof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

LAC allows 5.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 57 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Rashee Rice has gone over 9.5 TGT 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most TGT of 32 teams (5.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.