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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan
#4 · WR · 6' 5" · 212 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Jan 10, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 68.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan was in and out of practice during the spring due to ankle soreness, but he's ready to roll for the start of training camp now that pads are on and the season is inching closer. According to Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network, McMillan is expected to see more opportunities out of the slot this season after the Panthers used a third-round pick on outside weapon Chris Brazzell. McMillan added "eight or nine pounds of muscle" over the offseason, per Wolfe. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, McMillan will look to build on his 70-1,014-7 regular season from last year.
Verdict
vs 68.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
77.3 REC YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 80.8 · L10 67.1 · med 66.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 43.8 · ceil 87.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Season15 games
47%over
7 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 53% | 8/15 | ||
| 68.5Current | 47% | 7/15 | |
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 | ||
| 47% | 7/15 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%7/14Low
Last matchup — vs LAR
Jan 10, 2026
6thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
LAR allows 48.1 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 68.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 47% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 27.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.