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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan
#4 · WR · 6' 5" · 212 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 92.0 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year wideout caught Bryce Young's third TD of the afternoon, a four-yard toss late in the fourth quarter that gave the Panthers some late hope. It was McMillan's first trip to the end zone since Week 4, and through eight games he's collected a 46-625-3 line on 71 targets. He'll look to build on this performance in a Week 10 road trip to New Orleans.
Verdict
vs 80.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
93.3 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 95.4 · L10 92.0 · med 80.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 58.0 · ceil 101.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 80.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 |
Situational splits
Over 80.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ NO
Nov 15, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NO allows 44.2 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 80.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (44.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 48.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 73.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+9.3%
Our model puts the over at 59.3% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (71.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.