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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan Targets
Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 7.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 7.9 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan's yardage total comfortably paced the Panthers on the afternoon, and the second-year pro also led the team in targets while checking in as the runner-up in receptions. He's posted five catches apiece in each of his first two games of the season and parlayed them into a solid 176 receiving yards on 18 targets, all numbers that only serve to further cement his status as an integral component of Carolina's air attack. McMillan will next take aim at the Browns' inconsistent defense in a Week 3 road matchup next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 7.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency60supports it
Projection
7.0 TGT(×0.90 context)
L5 7.6 · L10 7.9 · med 7.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 6.0 · ceil 10.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
63%over
10 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–82%Season16 games
63%over
10 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–82%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 16/16 | ||
| 88% | 14/16 | ||
| 75% | 12/16 | ||
| 7.5Current | 63% | 10/16 | |
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 25% | 4/16 | ||
| 6% | 1/16 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%6/8Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Next matchup — @ CLE
Sep 27, 2026
31stof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 3.3 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 7.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 63% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most TGT of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Tetairoa McMillan research
Tetairoa McMillan — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McMillan Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McMillan Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
McMillan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.