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Carolina PanthersTetairoa McMillan Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 13.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Arizona
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 17.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTetairoa McMillan isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
McMillan led the Panthers in receiving yards despite generating a modest total, and the second-year wideout has now fallen under 60 receiving yards in consecutive games for the first time this season. He does have at least six grabs in three of the past four games and a trio of double-digit target tallies on the season, so he continues to sport a formidable fantasy floor despite Bryce Young's current struggles. Carolina's air attack may have a tough time bouncing back in Week 9, however, as the stingy Broncos defense comes to town on Sunday, Nov. 8.
Verdict
vs 13.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
16.6 FS(×1.00 context)
L5 18.9 · L10 17.5 · med 13.2
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 10.5 · ceil 15.1
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 13.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 13.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — vs DEN
Nov 8, 2026
9thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
DEN allows 10.5 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Tetairoa McMillan has gone over 13.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most FS of 32 teams (10.5 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Tetairoa McMillan research
Tetairoa McMillan — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
McMillan Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
McMillan Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
McMillan Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.