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New Orleans SaintsTyler Shough
#6 · QB · 6' 5" · 219 lb · 10 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 238.4 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Shough isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
As a rookie, Shough appeared in 11 regular-season contests and went 5-4 as the Saints' starting QB after taking over for Spencer Rattler in November. In the process, he completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards, with 10 touchdowns and six picks, while adding 45 carries for 186 yards and three rushing TDs. This coming season, the 2025 second-rounder approaches training camp atop a signal-caller depth chart that still includes Rattler, as well as Zach Wilson and Hunter Dekkers. In addition to the Saints' investment in added weapons at the skill positions for Shough, the team looked to fortify its protection unit by signing veteran guard David Edwards and TE Noah Fant, who is underrated as a blocker, per Jackson. With continued growth in in his second campaign as a pro, Shough has a chance provide solid fantasy value in 2026 relative to his average draft position.
Verdict
vs 249.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency55neutral
Projection
259.9 PASS YDS(×1.00 context)
L5 263.2 · L10 238.4 · med 251.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 169.6 · ceil 287.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Season10 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 249.5Current | 50% | 5/10 | |
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 | ||
| 50% | 5/10 |
Situational splits
Over 249.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%5/9Low
Last matchup — @ ATL
Jan 4, 2026
14thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
ATL allows 221.9 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shough has gone over 249.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (221.9 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 65.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.