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New Orleans SaintsTyler Shough
#6 · QB · 6' 5" · 219 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 9 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Louisville
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 263.8 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTyler Shough isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The second-year QB had a slow start to the contest, but Shough engineered another second-half comeback for the Saints, and this one was actually successful. He hit Chris Olave for a 21-yard TD early in the fourth quarter before just getting across the goal line for a one-yard score inside the final two minutes. Shough has 662 passing yards and a 4:2 TD:INT through two games to begin the season, and he'll take plenty of confidence and momentum into a Week 3 home clash with the Raiders.
Verdict
vs 237.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 92% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line92supports it
Consistency55neutral
Projection
325.0 PASS YDS(×1.14 context)
L5 312.4 · L10 277.4 · med 265.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 239.0 · ceil 308.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
90%over
9 over · 1 under
Medium confidence95% CI 60%–98%Last 2011 games
82%over
9 over · 2 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–95%Season11 games
82%over
9 over · 2 under
Medium confidence95% CI 52%–95%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 237.5Current | 82% | 9/11 | |
| 82% | 9/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 |
Situational splits
Over 237.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away86%6/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days90%9/10Medium
Next matchup — vs LV
Sep 27, 2026
20thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LV allows 206.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shough has gone over 237.5 PASS YDS 9 of 10 decided times (90%) — versus 82% across the full season. LV has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (206.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 71.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 82%.