New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough Passing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Shough has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.3 PASS TD · PrizePicks line

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OutTyler Shough isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The second-year QB had a slow start to the contest, but Shough engineered another second-half comeback for the Saints, and this one was actually successful. He hit Chris Olave for a 21-yard TD early in the fourth quarter before just getting across the goal line for a one-yard score inside the final two minutes. Shough has 662 passing yards and a 4:2 TD:INT through two games to begin the season, and he'll take plenty of confidence and momentum into a Week 3 home clash with the Raiders.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)88supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.7 PASS TD(×1.14 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2011 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Season11 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	82%	9/11
1.5Current	36%	4/11
	9%	1/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%4/10Low

Next matchup — vs LV

Sep 27, 2026

28thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

LV allows 0.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shough has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 36% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 28th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.