New Orleans Saints

Tyler Shough Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler Shough has gone over 15.5 FS in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Louisville
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 17.0 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutTyler Shough isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The second-year QB had a slow start to the contest, but Shough engineered another second-half comeback for the Saints, and this one was actually successful. He hit Chris Olave for a 21-yard TD early in the fourth quarter before just getting across the goal line for a one-yard score inside the final two minutes. Shough has 662 passing yards and a 4:2 TD:INT through two games to begin the season, and he'll take plenty of confidence and momentum into a Week 3 home clash with the Raiders.

Verdict

vs 15.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 86% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line86supports it

Consistency40neutral

Projection

22.5 FS(×1.14 context)

L5 21.9 · L10 18.2 · med 18.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 10.2 · ceil 22.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

100%over

5 over · 0 under

Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2011 games

73%over

8 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%

Season11 games

73%over

8 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%

Last 11 games — FS per game vs. line 15.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 15.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away86%6/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days80%8/10Low

Next matchup — vs LV

Sep 27, 2026

23rdof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

LV allows 13.8 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyler Shough has gone over 15.5 FS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 73% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 23rd-most FS of 32 teams (13.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.